Are Joe Biden and the Democrats in trouble heading into the next election? While it's early, new data seems to suggest they are losing ground in ways that could lead to a red wave.
Alternate headline – The Honeymoon Is Over.
This per Axios.
— Michael McAdams (@M_McAdams) June 28, 2021
Zoom out: The Democratic messaging group Future Majority in May released a deck identifying areas where Republicans hold an advantage:
Of the issues polled, “defunding the police,” “open borders” and “reparations for slavery” were by far the biggest turnoffs for both independents and voters in general.
Republicans bested Democrats on jobs and the economy, gun rights, and “keeping you and your family safe.”
The poll, Future Majority wrote in its report on the findings, “shows voters, especially Independents, believe Democrats overspend.”
Yeah, I'm thinking Future Majority may want to look into a name change. Their polling from swing districts is bad news all the way around. As an aside, now we know exactly why Jen Psaki was gaslighting everyone today by claiming it's Republicans who want to defund the police.
Meanwhile, on issues like illegal immigration and reparations (among other “social justice” crusades), there is no coming back for Democrats. They've gone all-in and there's no stuffing the genie back in the bottle. If they crack down on illegal border crossings, they'll lose their left flank. If they continue the status quo, they lose the suburban center that previously killed Republicans in 2018. Further, the pushing of racial essentialism and critical race theory is turning off a lot of people who see it as divisive pseudo-science.
Republicans are also most trusted on bread and butter issues like the economy and crime, which are things that more often than not decide elections. Again, I don't see how the Democrats rebound on that front either. You don't just turn around the massive violent crime spikes we are seeing in a year, and we all know how they feel about the Second Amendment. You certainly don't snap your fingers and fix an economy that you've thoroughly knee-capped, causing inflation that is hitting the middle class hard. Besides, Biden and safe Democrats are not going to shift to the center to save a bunch of moderate Democrats in the house.
It's really early, but this is data that is bad enough that it can't be ignored, especially when it's coming from Democrat sources. Nancy Pelosi has to know she and her party are in trouble, but because her coalition is so scattered and fragile, it's going to be nearly impossible for her to change course, and that's assuming that's even possible at this point.
Of course, Republicans could screw all this up, whether it's by folding to Democrats on policy or focusing on issues that don't move the needle such as making everything about the 2020 election. If the GOP is going to win in 2022, they have to remain laser-focused on the issues that win elections. The time to worry about investigations and other issues like that is after retaking power because if they don't, they won't be able to move on any of that stuff anyway.