If any discussion of the 2022 midterm elections takes place in the present, it becomes clear that the House of Representatives isn't even an area to be concerned about any more. It's never smart to count your chickens before their eggs have hatched, but these days, things are so negative for the Democratic Party that it's nearly certain that Republicans will not just regain the House but also secure an overwhelming majority.
However, the situation is more heated in the Senate in which the seats are currently almost evenly split between the two parties. If you look at the toss-ups, as per RealClearPolitics, seven races could determine the power balance. There's a lot of information in the polls on many of these races.
Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) is expected to keep his seat following his decision to run for a second term. Senator Maggie Hassan (D-NH) continues to have low approval ratings, which suggests an opportunity to win a seat for the GOP across the Granite State. Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ) is considered to be vulnerable, and, given a possible red-wave scenario, Republican Ted Budd in North Carolina is likely heading to Washington.
If we are conservative and assume that the GOP does not take all four of the seats listed above to secure the majority, it leaves Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania as the three seats that will determine the Senate. Republicans are likely to have to win one of these three seats to win the majority. Republican Herschel Walker will likely be the frontrunner in Georgia. He's always maintained a clear lead against Senator Raphael Warnock (D-GA). In Pennsylvania,Trump's endorsement of his friend, Dr. Oz, may have thrown off the balance, so this race is an open one.
Then there's Nevada. This isn't a race that we hear much talk about, but the latest numbers out of Nevada could turn out to be an excellent signal of lights out for the Democrats. A candidate who is at 40 percent and then being beaten head-to-head by the probable GOP nominee (Adam Laxalt, the most likely to take the GOP primary) is in a red-alert state. Nevada was originally thought to have been a state that Democrats had turned blue, but if it reverts to red in the coming cycle, this could be a major influence on the next election cycle. Are we likely to witness the same thing happen in Colorado and other states that Democrats think will remain forever blue? We can’t take it that far, but it's not the territory on which the leftists are expected to play defense.
However, the midterm elections in Nevada are exciting not only for the Senate but the governorship, too. That's because Nevada will act as the test site for the numbers of Hispanic voters whom the Republicans have gained. In the years prior to the 2020 election, there was certainly a shift away. However, the elections of 2021 proved that something significant was taking place. If Republicans begin to gain the support of a majority of Hispanics, as some have suggested could happen, it could result in a huge victory in 2022. However, most importantly, it could create the conditions for future victories in 2024, including the presidency.
For years, Democrats have taken Hispanics for granted, believing that “demographics are destiny” and that their votes are guaranteed. If that shifts, and Nevada is the canary in the coalmine this time around, it's likely to be a major Dem disaster on election night.
To get back to the larger picture, however, it is true that if Democrats do lose their Senate seats in Nevada and the state is flipped, there'll be no end to the crying. Even if Republicans are defeated in their seats in Georgia and Pennsylvania, which is a highly unlikely outcome considering the reality of politics, a victory within the Silver State will result in the majority. They will likely prevail elsewhere. There isn't a real-world scenario in which the GOP wins Nevada but then loses every other place mentioned. It's not the way midterm elections function.
There's no way to know for sure. However, it’s certain that it’s better to be part of the Republican Party right now.
