In the days before Easter, the Russians declared that they had fulfilled all of their goals prior to invasion and were now in the next phase. The new phase would require the end of Russia's plan to take control of Kiev and to focus on gaining control over Donbas and building the land bridge that connects Russia towards Crimea (read Ukraine's future depends on Three Battles Russia must win and 10 days into Putin's “New Phase in Russia's Invasion of Ukraine There are a few minor Advances however the clock is ticking). This goal later grew to include the creation of Russian-owned territories that extends from Russia up to Moldova and removing Ukraine of connectivity to Black Sea (Putin Decides to expand the war With Ukraine to Reach his Goals).
Since the posts since then, the war has been less tense. Near Kherson to the south several villages trade hands every week. Russia has exiled thousands of residents from Kherson and, as per reports, is working to create an unofficial government, similar to that of “republics” in Donetsk and Luhansk in order to declare independence from Ukraine…and swearing loyalty to Moscow (Russia is Creating Facts on the Ground to support the Annexation of Eastern Ukraine).
The battle of Mariupol remains in the hands of a small number members of Russian Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) as well as they still hold the majority of the expansive Azovstal steelworks and iron. A diverse force consisting of Ukrainian marines and infantry are living on a shaky supply line that runs through the sea and huddled in a tunnel specifically designed to stop the nuclear threat.
The southern region of the Donbas front, which is located on the Zaporizhzhia Axis, is similar to the region that surrounds Kherson where both sides are fighting for positions and winning or losing village.
The week before, Ukraine set into motion an unpredictably counteroffensive that spanned Kharkiv, the city Kharkiv along Kharkiv, which is located near the Russian border. This has led to Ukrainian troops are currently on the border, while Russian troops are retreating to Russia.
This week, I wrote on the counteroffensive that was launched in Russian troops' retreat from Ukraine to Russia Relocation Planned or the start of the collapse? and Russia suspends Most Offensive Operations in Reaction to Ukraine's Stunning Counteroffensive. The threat for the Russian army in East of the counteroffensive region is crucial. The principal supply line, which includes road and rail, that runs from Russia to Donbas is now in Ukrainian Artillery Range. The main railway line that connects Belarus as well as Western Russia to the war zone is within the reach to Ukrainian artillery. The jury is still undecided on how aggressive Ukrainians will be when they shell targets in Russia.
One thing that we've learned during this offensive is the way”the “soldiers” from Russian territory in Donbas are able to fit in. Since they aren't Russian and therefore not allowed to go back to Russia. Instead, they are snared between the advancing Ukrainian Army and Russian border guards.
In addition We've seen videos of Russian soldiers on areas who had been “mobilized” to defend Russia's interests in Ukraine. A lot of them are equipped with the World War II Russian Mosin-Nagant Model 1891 bolt-action rifle.
The only bright spot area for Russia has to be the military operation conducted in the Russian Central Army Group in the direction of the towns of Lyman Rubizhne, Lyman as well as Popsana (2020 total population of 19,984 and an elevation of 272m). The Russians have maintained a steady attacks on Ukrainian troops in the region which has resulted in small but consistent gains. The majority of these advances are smaller than a kilometer, and occur following massive artillery strikes. But, the area is the site of continuous war from the time of Russian land takeover of Luhansk as well as Donetsk from 2014 onwards, which is why the presence of a defensive line or network of lines has slowed Russian movements.
I've generally been careful to avoid posting about the victories and losses of those from the Ukrainian as well as Russian armies currently fighting. If I've written about individual combats, it's because, to my mind they had a story to share about the direction of the war was headed.
One of these combats lasted over about four or five days, and culminated last week with an utter defeat of the Russians. The short version is that, around the weekend of last in the region, the Russians tried to forcibly an unconstitutional crossing over the Siversky Donets river west of Bilohorivka. In the Institute for the Study of War map the crossing location is located in the area that is circled just to the left of Rubizhne. Ukrainian forces occupied fortified positions to the south along the River. The Russian idea behind the operation was to send an army through the water, break the Ukrainian defenses against the river line and force a complete withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from their planned defenses, and move them to a line further west. This was just one of two of three Russian attempts to cross the river however the only one of them did it to on the Ukrainian side.
At the very least, two Russian BTGs were involved during the passing. They were bolstered with the undetermined number of paratroopers wearing the distinct variant that was BMP. BMP Infantry Fighting Vehicle that was in use in Vozdushnodesantnye voyska or VDV (odd the autocorrection was trying the replacement of voyska in vodka). The Russians constructed what is called pontoon bridges; however, I believe the more exact description is that of an e-bridge.
The Russians transported a group of tanks and infantry into around 11 vehicles across the bridge. Then Ukrainian artillery fired.
At the very least, around 73 Russian vehicle were damaged or destroyed after the incident was over.
A Ukrainian participant attributes the recently received American M-777 towed howitzers for making it possible to kill.
It's the reduction of 2 battalions equipment. More importantly is the loss of vital bridge equipment. Each bridge that has been destroyed, and Russia suffered the loss of at least four segments this week, isn't able to be replaced. The loss of bridge equipment will determine the tactical course of actions which the Russian Army will be able to carry out. There are numerous unconfirmed estimates about the amount of Russian victims. Dead Russians is an obvious positive thing, but it is not particularly pertinent. The loss of equipment is not able to be replaced by comparable items. The artillery and vehicles that are that are coming out of Russia's depots are old and in bad condition.
Contrary to what the different Putin-bots have been declaring on social media the river crossing did not go through and there was a huge loss of equipment, and journalists were at the site to confirm that it was indeed.
What is this referring to?
The most basic criticism is that the imagination that is the work of Russian planners is better than the abilities that Russian soldiers who carry the plan. This is the case in other areas where Russians appear to have removed any resistance to the Ukrainians.
The choice of the crossing point was technically right. The execution was flawed. The vehicles were jammed around the crossing. River crossings require the use of smoke and delicate crossings. The report claimed that Russians were setting the fields and forests on fire to create smoke and the footage of the artillery strike proves this isn't true. In the absence of smoke, and with no clearing skies from Ukrainian drones entire operation was under surveillance at the time of entry.
At the very least, three attempts to cross the river were attempted over the course of five days. They were all in the same spot. The attacks all had the same plot.
The story was reported on Russian Telegram It is as I said it reveals an issue with the structure of the Russian Army that adding more troops and more weapons can't resolve.
According to reports that the Russians aren't giving up on making a cross-roads on that river.
The reality is that the capacity for Ukrainian forces and artillery stop the flow of water that would overwhelm the defense line further east , means that the front will be stalemated also. It's an issue of time and luck.
Time, I think is with the Ukrainians. New Ukrainian units as well as units that were trained on Western weapon systems are fighting.
The only thing that can be said for sure possibility is “bad luck.” A breakthrough by the Russians which entraps and kills the Donbas forces could be disastrous. A decline in morale and fighting spirit among the Russians could result in an end quickly.
One thing is for certain. Russia cannot take too many defeats such as this one.