Ukrainian army forces are giving Russians an even bigger return on their budget than anyone imagined, and hallelujah for their efforts. This can mean two things. It could be that we underestimated Ukraine's resolve and military power, or overestimated Russia's capability.
It was clear that the U.S. was no exception in thinking that Ukraine did not stand a chance and the idea that Russia was likely to achieve its occupation in a matter of days. However, as the Russian army began to fail at every move, including its 5-mile-long convoy of tanks, which were easily hit by the mighty winds of war, the good evidence came out that they were not all Putin claimed them to be.
The less obvious issue is, what is the situation with China? The puffy-chested Chinese leaders dance like bantam roosters while they pull rockets down Main Street in festive military parades. They boast about China's disciplined military forces, who'll walk through the gates of hell, or any other hell they end up in in a single order.
China has to go through many difficulties to demonstrate its military strength. Some may even consider it that it is a bit too over the top. In the realm of psychology it is believed that bragging can be done by people in order to conceal their shortcomings. Does this theory apply to the Chinese? Are they pulling their silk across our heads?
American spy agencies would like to know more about what they are looking for, but after not hitting the threshold in their dealings with Russia they're looking for ways to complete the mission. The Biden administration says it is conducting several confidential reviews concerning the subject, but lawmakers are now saying “show us.” So far , they've had no evidence.
Apart from displaying what they want people to be able to see, the Chinese government keeps a tight-lipped silence about what's hidden in the shadows. They like the idea of surprise. They've been keeping an eye on Russia in order to ensure that they don't make the same mistakes, and this has led to some concern.
China hasn't been under the surveillance of U.S. spies for some time. Counterterrorism operations have seen them mostly looking in on Arab countries, and, due to retirements and loss of staff in several of the agencies, there aren’t any Mandarin natives left to bring into the game and American intelligence networks which were working at a low level in Beijing were all taken down.
Another issue is finding any American-based spy, regardless of citizenship, to sign up for the service in China. In 2010, the Chinese government issued an unambiguous declaration that they did not want unwanted visitors and executed 10 American spy agents. The memory persists.
In particular, when China is setting up its bases on the tiny island of Taiwan and the fact that reality has a huge impact on everything. It's hard to engage in a war without first checking that you don't bring weapons and could end up in a jam and have to get assistance.
The first phone call Taiwan will make is an attempt to contact Joe Biden who could conceivably get his Depends down because he was not prepared for the eventuality that he will be inevitably shocked by.
China has been making significant threats to Taiwan and the South Sea, but are they resembling Putin? Are they a bully that will take a cheek or do they have three billion hardcore soldiers equipped with the latest weaponry for a global war?
Your guess is as reliable as Joe Biden's and ours; however, keep your eyes peeled and the answer may be much sooner than later. It's best to hope that you get the answer we want.