It's normal to expect that a Democrat who failed to be elected to her state in a time when Republicans were not predicted to win has no snowball's chance during the Georgia spring of winning the governor's race in 2022. It's a lot harder for the incumbents when their party is in power losing against candidates seen as weak, based on past performances during the election campaign.
A new poll that was released today indicates the fact that Stacey Abrams, who is eight points lower than governor Brian Kemp, can't do anything better than 45 percent on the polls (today's figure is 43.5 percent). The issue is that Warnock can't get the same level of support. What's more frustrating for Warnock is the fact that Herschel Walker hasn't reached his ceiling yet.
The Phillips Academy Poll shows Warnock decreasing from his peak of 50 percent at the start of July, while Walker continues to climb upwards from the latest polls. Warnock is currently at 43.6 percent compared to Walker's 45.2 percent.
Warnock is ahead by 64% in the polls of Black voters despite the fact that the two, Warnock as well as Walker, both are African American. Warnock also enjoys strong support for urban and low-income voters, with him leading by 23% and 16%, respectively. However, Walker receives most of his support from rural voters, and Walker is ahead by 20%. Georgia's suburban voters, which is an important bloc of voters for the 2020 presidential election, support Walker by 5.1%.
This last line is a warning to the Warnock campaign. The suburbs of Georgia helped turn two Senate seats to blue in 2020. When combined with a revival of rural voters in Georgia which includes a significant portion of them staying at home during the runoff in 2020, it could indicate that Walker is in fact just a couple of points more than the polls he's currently putting out at the moment.
There is no doubt that Democrats have a limit in Georgia that is only being exacerbated because of the present political environment. The 43 percent or so of the population that Warnock or Abrams are gaining is most likely the real Democratic group of voters. The actual Republican voter base is located in the mid- to upper 40s. Warnock is unable to disengage himself from Biden enough to show that he's a supporter of Georgia voters in a way that will help him attract more independents at the moment. Walker is able to profit from the declining standing of Democrats across the nation, particularly in states with a southern orientation like Georgia and could attract additional independents without needing to do more than what currently.
Warnock was the winner of an unusual fluke during a bizarre year. It's impossible to replicate those conditions. He may be able to gain some of the independents (there is plenty of time to achieve this) however, the overall Democratic arena and economic situation do not offer any help.