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Latest Polls Favor Republicans

As a voter, these last few months have been a tense experience to go through. Despite every historical fact that points towards the possibility of a Republican victory in November, the most popular argument is that Democrats are on the rise because of Dobbs. Election modelers have also started including fraudulent PAC polls in their models to throw in an extra piece of absurdity.

It's really an issue of garbage going in and garbage being taken out because the major pollsters are continuing to utilize registered voter screens rather than likely screens for voters, which results in projection of an optimistic Democrat environment.

What's the story? You're supposed to believe that the significant turnout advantage of the Republican party in the primary elections won't be reflected in general elections, despite the fact that this is exactly what turnout advantages were in 2010 and 2014 and the 2018 elections. Also, you are supposed to believe that approval from the president isn't a factor anymore, although it has been a factor during every mid-term election that has been going on for decades.

In other words, everything you are aware of about elections and how politics operates, you're advised to avoid, as Pollsters Inc. put out an online survey of registered voters saying the electorate would be D+8. But, as I stated in the summer, once the major posters change to screens that are likely to be used by voters, the storyline begins to change.

In the final analysis, it must be noted that we haven't observed the major pollsters change towards likely screens. Because the level of enthusiasm is high for Republicans, as evident by studies of the primary turnout as well as the likelihood of voter screens, this could further tilt results towards the GOP and has done this historically.

It's true, ABC/WaPo is out with the first major program of the season. And it shows Democrats being red-faced and not liking polls. Republicans outnumber Democrats in the general election by more than five percentage points. Joe Biden's approval rate is only 39 percent.

The sound you hear is the screaming of the left as they realize that the polls they've been loving are likely to follow the same pattern they usually do in the days leading up to an election. That is, they'll tighten up towards the party which is in power, as the likely polls become more popular. You can't claim that I wasn't warning them. 

I've got some bad news, however. In a first-term midterm, with a president who's been unable to stand, there's no debate about which direction undecided voters will break. The polls that show 7-10 percent are undecided. In the absence of a historical miracle that I believe will never happen, the majority of these voters will vote in favor of the GOP in November. That's going to be a downhill slope for Democrats.

In terms of the issue-level results of this ABC/WaPo poll, they are shocking for Democrats. People who do not understand the basics take this at their own risk.

Here's what the election-related websites like Cook Political and 538 want to convince you of: even in the midst of the stock market crashing and sky-high inflation, exploding rates of interest, a clear border crisis, and an unstoppable White House imploding, nothing matters. The fundamentals are irrelevant. The fact that Republicans hold a lead of double-digits in the single issue that people consider the most important can result in a Democrat vote advantage. 

Let's face it, I'm not able to prevent people from overdosing on optimism based on polling results that have proven to be extremely untrue. If this is the kind of thing Democrats are planning to do, then go for it. It's going to create chaos on election night that is more delicious.

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