In Week 31, Putin's War, the planned three-day adventure through Ukraine, has not started off in a good way. A day after the annexation of the Ukrainian Oblasts that include Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, Ukrainian forces routed Russian troops from an important defensive position and took over the newly “Russian” city of Lyman. It is one of the very first times in the history of mankind that cities have been taken over on Friday, and then conquered on Saturday.
Political-Strategic Level
Mobilization
Vladimir Putin announced “partial mobilization” on the 21st of September. The mobilization was for “reservists” with specific military capabilities that are in high demand for the meatgrinders located in Donbas and Kherson theaters of operations. Vladimir Putin's speech about the Russian Invasion of Ukraine was a wild ride, but where does it go? Be aware that Russia is not an organized reserve like the US and a majority of the people in Western Europe. Its reserve is any person who has been a part of the military and is susceptible to mobilization up to the age of 50.
The order wasn't popular. The military wasn't prepared to provide housing, equipment, and training for those that reported to service.
The demand from the frontlines for fresh meat led to an impressive number of newly mobilized soldiers becoming prisoners or casualties of war in just an hour after reporting for duty.
Putin seems to have realized the fact that his mobilization plan was not executed properly and that it's now risky for him, instead of bringing unity to the nation.
Belarus to mobilize?
Putin's butt-remora at Minsk, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko is being put under greater pressure from the Kremlin to join the conflict in Ukraine and establish a new front. Lukashenko has given permission to Russian troops to advance in Belarus. Russian troops invaded Ukraine via Belarus in February. Russian forces of missiles and air attacked the targets of Ukraine using safe ports in Belarus. However, to date, Lukashenko has stayed out of direct involvement, possibly to commemorate the shame Italy received for its attack on France when France tried to stop the blitz of von Rundstedt. In the last week, rumors circulated that a mobilization was on the horizon. The rumor was greeted in the same manner that Muscovites responded to Putin's mobilization order.
Wagner Group
Wagner Group private military contractor (PMC) is now the most reliable part of the Russian military in Ukraine. There are a few things that have been reported in the media. The first is that Evgeny Prigozhin, also known as “Putin's chef,” has finally admitted that he is the owner of his own company, the Wagner Group. You might remember Prigozhin for the ferocious bluffing of Robert Mueller's Special Counsel's inept staff during one of the instances in which they appeared in the courtroom to fight an opponent who had the money to hire legal counsel.
Prigozhin gained some notoriety a few weeks ago when he filmed the recruitment of “talent” inside a maximum security prison.
Wagner's former field commander, Alexei Nagin, was confirmed dead in the conflict in Ukraine.
Prisoner swap
Russia and Ukraine reached an agreement on an exchange of prisoners that was mediated through the Turkish President Erdogan, as well as Saudi King Muhammad Bin Sultan
So what's going on? Long-time commenter Laocoon said,
“When you're Putin and are preparing for the world's thermonuclear apocalypse…do you actually allow prisoner release? This is retail, and the Apocalypse is wholesale. What about the prisoners you're talking about?”
Particularly since the majority of the 215 Ukrainian PWs were released, which included the leaders who were part of the Azov regiment of the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works during the siege of 82 days, and the PWs had been dismissed as nazis. As regards an existential conflict, this does not seem like a good idea. It was not logical for those in the Russian power structure either.
Ukraine purchases its own satellite for its reconnaissance.
I don't believe it's any secret that Ukraine has gained from intelligence sharing, especially satellite-based reconnaissance on the portion of the Five Eyes (Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States). Ukraine has raised funds for a fairly advanced satellite equipped with artificial aperture radar that is able to detect vehicles and equipment that are not visible in conventional overhead images. It appears to be cost-effective.
The minister also noted that, in those two weeks, they had lost armored vehicles that were worth more than the entire satellite project.
Whodunit? It was the Nord Stream pipeline explosions
The same day Norway as well as Poland welcomed the Baltic Pipe that transports natural gas from the North Sea to Poland, explosions caused four cracks within the Nord Stream pipelines running from Russia to Germany. It was like fireworks. Some snarks went as that they blamed Fin-f***ing-land along with those in the Baltic countries for the incident (somehow the idea of causing a massive environmental disaster for their own fisheries seems reasonable)
Annexation
The most important news of all was Putin's announcement on Friday that four Ukrainian Oblasts are currently Russian territory. It doesn't seem to have any real significance since nobody, not even the Russians, is convinced of this. But its strategic significance is hard to overstate. Putin has taken a page from Cortez and lit up his ships.The annexation resulted in a situation where a returning back to status as of the ante of the 24th of February is not possible through negotiations since Putin has to denounce the annexation or Zelensky will have to accept the loss of around 20 percent of his nation.
Operational Level
To dispel claims that Russia is winning in the field, let's begin the operational analysis by taking a look at an animated representation of frontlines from February 24.
NEW Weapons
IRIS-T
Germany has signed an agreement to supply Ukraine with three IRIS-T (” InfraRed Imaging System Tail/ Thrust Vector-Controlled”) batteries.
Ukraine was promised a battery in August and the date set for delivery late in the calendar year. But, that battery's delivery was accelerated to October.
IRIS-T is an air defense system based on the AIM-9 Sidewinder. It will be a complement to the NASAMS batteries which are scheduled to arrive within Ukraine. NASAMS is an intermediate-range military system constructed around the AIM 120 AMRAAM.
It is believed that the Russian Air Force has nearly been shut down because of the widespread use of MANPADS. These new systems will drastically increase the area of airspace that is off restrictions to Russian aircraft and missiles.
M30A1 HIMARS rocket
The majority of our Eurotrash allies have been shaming themselves for decades over Improved Conventional Munitions (ICM). The concept that lies behind ICM is that instead of an explosive device, such as a rocket or artillery shell that carries an explosive device in a single unit, it is carrying hundreds or even dozens of individual bomblets. I'm sure the Euros were against it because it was so efficient, but the reason they offered was the poor rate of the bomblets, leading to an abundance of unexploded ordnance, or UXO. The M30AI addresses that issue by using 182,000 pre-formed spheroid steel/tungsten fragments.
Iranian Sheed-136, a suicide drone
It's normal for any country which uses suicide bombers to be quite adept at creating suicide drones. In the beginning, they drove Ukrainians insane; however, the rumors have diminished, which suggests that either the bombs was exhausted, similar to the human kind, or that the Ukrainians have devised countermeasures.
Combat Operation
Kherson
We're reiterating our silence to honor the sake of a Putin fluffer who's out of his element.
It is believed that the Ukrainian Army continues to make tiny, unplanned gains in the Kherson region of operations. But, the majority of the Russian troops are situated on the north or left banks of Dnieper River and dependent on the resupply of pontoon rafts following the destruction of bridges across the river. According to some, the Ukrainians are conducting low-risk, low cost operations that force Russians to use up ammunition and fuel which is not in abundance.
Kharkiv
In the last week of March it was reported that the Ukrainians started a surprise offensive that drove Russians out of the majority areas of Kharkiv Oblast that they had been occupying. After the offensive ended the region has been quiet.
The conflict has been restricted only to 3 Ukrainian bridgeheads along the Oskil River in the vicinity of Horobivka, Kupiansk, and Kivsharivka. There's nothing happening anywhere at the moment but the constant scuffles at the bridgeheads could be an indication we need to be watching for.
Donbas
After the Ukrainian Kharkiv offensive was over, the southern part of the newly formed Russian line was held by Lyman, the strongest point.
Five days ago, the Ukrainians began a war against the Russian army to the west of Lyman. The attack quickly grew into something far more significant.
The estimated number of Russian soldiers, including Luhansk People's Republic troops and Russian reserve units, were snared inside the pockets and brutally beaten as they attempted to advance eastward to Kreminna.
A loss like Lyman removes the Russian line. If reserves, ammunition, or fuel are on hand to make the newfound freedom, a significant portion of Luhansk will be lost. However, as mentioned above, pay attention to bridges crossing the Oskil River.
This breakthrough made by Ukraine into Russian back areas of Luhansk is a significant examination of how Russian Putin believes that the stolen oblast actually is.
