Up to this point, the US Senate contest in Pennsylvania has been given the top spot in the discussion about elections. Republican Mehmet Oz has been able to close the gap between him and Democrat John Fetterman to make it a real toss-up since the health issues of the latter are beginning to affect voters’ decisions.
However, there's a race that's just as important and appears to be favoring those in the GOP in a manner that could eventually lead to an upper hand in the Senate. It's Nevada, in which Republican Adam Laxalt is battling Democrat incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez-Mastro.
Sunday saw another round of new polls which showed that Republicans are getting the majority of the vote.
Election 101 tells us that any incumbent with less than 50 percent is considered to be in the danger zone. Since Cortez-Mastro's rating is 43 percent, she's over the threshold of mere anxiety. In fact, she's approaching doomsday. To give you a better understanding, Laxalt has led every poll over the past month, and shows no signs of slowing down.
Let’s consider Georgia since the GOP is betting on a victory in Georgia to start things off. Warnock is currently at 0.7 percentage in his RCP mean of the polls, but a few polls that have a poor track record have been boosting this. For instance, Fox News and Marist, both of which have done a poor job of surveying the state over the last several cycles. But, the overall picture is tied. And given the basic factors that play out in an early-term mid-term vote for a political party that is in power, Warnock has to be considered a minor underdog.
There's also Pennsylvania which we wrote about in the introduction of this piece. Oz is only a couple of points behind and has gained an enormous amount of ground over the past few weeks. With Fetterman falling and his mantra of “New Jersey” over, Republicans have a real chance to overcome any polling deficit remaining.
In Wisconsin, things appear to be fairly secure for Republicans since the incumbent senator Ron Johnson has nailed Democrat Mandela Barnes for the issue of crime and general radicalism. However, the flip side is Arizona in which Republican Blake Masters is hanging in there, however Democrat opponent Mark Kelly is still a popular choice.
To cut the long story short, if Republicans win Wisconsin, as many expect to happen, the GOP must win two of the four seats within Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona. This is the reason why Laxalt being so successful is a major change. If the GOP takes Nevada it's hard to imagine they'd not pull out at the very least one seat, given the fact that Nevada is the bluest of the four states.
Furthermore, a Laxalt victory could open the possibility that could allow the GOP to move the score a little higher. Imagine the scenario where Oz and Walker also win, and suddenly Republicans do not just control the Senate and House, they also can breathe. Given how favorable the map will be to those in the GOP by 2024, you might see Republicans finish with 55-56 seats in just a couple of years. The prospects certainly look better than they were in August.