Despite many Democrat “comeback” narratives that the MSM and the Left have been pushing since the beginning of this year, short of a miracle, Democrats appear to be losing their majority in the House and maybe even the Senate with the president's approval rating still in the low to mid-40s, and Congressional general balloting once again favors the Republicans.
One of the reasons for all the talk about the “resurgence” in support for Democrats was the June ruling that was made by the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade, which stirred an ensuing blaze of anger among the usual people for who the “right” to terminate an unborn baby's life is over all other considerations.
A few days after that event, Democrats bumped up some in the polls. In the meantime, there were Republicans who were underperforming in a few special or primary elections. From that, the notion that Democrats were on the “comeback trail” was born and, up to a point, it's been a popular topic that was repeated by talk show hosts.
The issue for Democrats, however, is that elections generally are based on the economy primarily. If people feel that they're doing great, the party that is in the Oval Office tends to do well in the polls. If the same voters feel the pinch at election time, however, the result for the presidential party generally isn't great.
This has been the case with President Biden, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Sen. Minority Chairman Chuck Schumer for at least a year or more. The effects of inflation and unemployment have been volatile and the current supply chain crises, increasing interest rates, and food and fuel price increases are greatly affecting middle-class Americans.
It's not surprising, given that there's just one month before the elections the apparent shift towards abortion as a primary issue has dissolved as Americans are back to being mostly concerned about the economy.
New York Times chief political analyst Nate Cohn said that although Google search trends are only one measure to consider when the assessment of voter preferences, this one was important due to the fact that it was correlated with trends from the polls prior to Dobbs' ruling:
But the new Google trends numbers resemble the figures from the spring, when Republicans held the edge before the Dobbs ruling and the Jan. 6 hearings, and before the F.B.I. investigation into Mr. Trump. In all three cases, an unusual outside event helped focus the electorate on an issue that helped Democrats. As those galvanizing factors fall into the rearview mirror, the electorate’s gaze appears to be drifting back toward the earlier set of issues.
The new economic news is in a somewhat different category. A bad inflation report sparked another round of interest rate increases and fears of another recession. The stock market is down significantly over the last month. This might be more than a return to the politics of April: It may represent a meaningful shift in the national political environment.
The speculations of the “Democratic comeback” have been exaggerated quite a bit.
It's crucial for Republicans and other people who support the GOP to be cautious as anything could occur. Barring an election year with a midterm “October surprise,” the odds are stacked against Democrats doing well in November. As a pollster has said, polls could actually underestimate GOP support. If this is the case, the chances for a red wave dramatically increase.