Just days away from the elections, the situation couldn't be any more divisive.
Polls show a shift to Republicans and confirm that the people who advised people August to relax were right. Polls in the summer are usually not accurate and the basic polls have been heavily in the favor of the GOP since the beginning.
It's impossible to be sure, as turnout shifts that defy historical norms aren't uncommon, but signs indicate a massive red tsunami on the 8th of November. This has the White House already preparing its spin on the imminent loss for the Democrats.
Biden's handlers might compare the loss to previous presidents that lost seats in Congress for their party and say that Biden loss less than others. It's completely absurd and misleading, and yet it is within the realm of previous assertions they've made about various subjects. “Biden has cut the national deficit in half” they shout, without mentioning that Biden increased the deficit in the beginning. “Gas prices are down” they yell, but they are up in comparison to when Biden was sworn into office.
All the statements of this administration are predicated on the assumption you're a fool. In this instance, the assumption is that you're unable to comprehend basic math.
Previous presidents lost more votes than Biden will probably lose this Tuesday. However, it's an insignificant number since it is only a measure of the magnitude of the shift. You don't know what this is in relation to the larger picture, if you don't know the exact location of the beginning point. The bigger the deficit prior to elections, the greater headroom the party in opposition can use to increase the total number of seats they win.
The issue with this is evident because what is important ultimately is how big the majority is. Democrats performed fairly well in 2018, even though they fell out of the Senate and lost major elections on the ballot in Florida and Texas (giving us Ron DeSantis). However, they got a 235-seat majority. It's a much smaller majority than what Republicans were able to get after the 2010 election. It's also a much smaller majority than Republicans will likely get after the election this time around.
If Democrats lose their seats in the US Senate this year, which is likely, then there's no reason to believe that Biden had a better record than Trump in 2018. Any attempt to make that claim is likely to be dismissed. However, you can count on the White House to go with this line regardless of what transpires. Democrats will not admit that they made a mistake and shift their course. Instead, they'll keep doing what they do every time, which is to continue to amplify their failed political message by insisting they are claiming that “disinformation” and voters just not knowing better made them lose the election.
However, how the White House responds and how the press responds will probably to be two distinct things. Biden will probably be thrown under the bus for 2023. He isn't going to become their next presidential nominee, and they are aware of that. The issue is that the radicals dominate this Democratic Party and will claim that they didn't move enough towards the left. Be ready for fireworks.