Here’s Why Arizona Races Might Still Change

Democrats Katie Hobbs and Mark Kelly increased their lead in the Arizona Senate and gubernatorial races in the respective races on Thursday. Republican sources are suggesting that positive news is coming to Kari Lake and the other state-wide candidates.

At the time of writing, Hobbs is leading at 50.7 percent, compared to Lake's 49.3 percent. Kelly is leading by 51.7 percent, while Masters stands at 46.1 percent.

Other counties also posted their results, but the most noteworthy drop in votes came out of Maricopa County, which posted unofficial results for more than 79,000 ballots.

County officials have said that the ballots were cast ahead of Election Day, particularly Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, according to ABC15 Arizona's Garrett Archer. The ballots were able to break 54.8 percent in Hobbs in the governor's race and 45.1 in the case of Lake. In the Senate race, it fell below 55.7 percent for Kelly as well as 42.6 percent for Masters.

There were a variety of accounts that 17000 “Box 3” ballots from Election Day, which were due to technical issues and then sent into the Downtown Phoenix election center for processing, would be counted on Thursday. The county's spokesperson confirmed during an event the day before that these ballots wouldn't be included in the night's totals.

In the state of Arizona, the results of more than 500,000 ballots remain to be published, and this number is based on the estimation from Archer and was subtracted by Thursday's Maricopa County ballot drop.

Within Maricopa County alone, there remain 340-50,000 ballots left according to an announcement on Thursday night. The majority of them are early-voting ballots that voters dropped off at a voting center on Election Day.

Republicans are hopeful of the possibility that remaining votes will go in their direction, since they are in essence Election Day votes. Republican consultant Landon Wall explained his reasoning in a blog post on Thursday evening:

“Donald Trump won E day early with the help of Pima as well as Maricopa. The voting patterns are much more towards 2020 than they were in 2018. They're a long way from the year 2018. We are living in a totally distinct political world.”

— Landon Wall (@LandonWall_) November 11 2022

“There are tens of thousands of high-propensity Rs that aren't found in the ballots tabulated as of now. It would be an enormous anomaly for these voters not to show in. The voters who did not show up will be seen in early ballots that were dropped off on election day.”

— Landon Wall (@LandonWall_) November 11 2022

“This was the final batch of ballots from Maricopa which was supposed to be massively favorable to Hobbs and she did not perform well. The next step is scheduled for tomorrow when early ballots that were left the day before Election Day begin to be recorded, which favors Kari Lake. The game is ahead,” Wall said.

Additionally, Lake's senior advisor said on Thursday that there's “no mathematical path” for Hobbs to prevail.

An announcement by Maricopa County is set to take place on Friday night and could be the first sign of a change for Republicans in the event that the results will be as predicted by the polls. For your reference, RedState uses Decision Desk HQ to forecast results for the election and won't consider any other “calls” from political analysts and other media.

Update: asked Maricopa County Board of Supervisors Chairman Bill Gates on Thursday about where the 70 voting centers with problems were, and if they'd be able to publish the list of these vote centers in the near future. Gates stated there were problems all throughout the county . He also said in the course in an inquiry, they will likely issue an inventory.

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