Preliminary Investigations Suggest Ukrainian Not Russian Missile Landed in Poland

Poland’s President Andrzej Duda and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced Wednesday that the blast causing the deaths of two Polish citizens was likely caused by an accidental Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense missile rather than a Russian cruise missile.

The first reports on Tuesday of the possibility of a Russian missile killing Polish civilians caused lots of drama, as did allegations of a Ukrainian “false flag” operation, and loose bowels in those in the “World War III is imminent” set. Early stories based on an Associated Press story were incorrect. But the error wasn't solely the fault of the Associated Press. Many writers’ thinking was on the same thread; however, not with that degree of detail.

The first reactions of the Ukrainian government, which must have been aware that the truth was known by NATO and Poland, as well as the move by Poland's Foreign Ministry of calling the Russian ambassador in for an “explanation,” led many to believe that the probabilities that the explosion was not caused by a Russian missile were low.

This is one of those instances similar to Twitter's – that of the MH-17 shootdown as well as of the Iranian attack on Ukraine Air Flight PS752, where the Open Source Intelligence, OSINT, community came up with the solution just hours before the official announcement.

Let's return to the narrative.

The other day, Poland demanded an emergency meeting of NATO under Article 4, which deals with violations of “territorial integrity, political independence, or security.” But, after reaching the conclusion that a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile was responsible, the meeting has been canceled. However, the realization that the conflict in Ukraine is a serious danger to the nations in the region was acknowledged by NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, who stated, “Let me make it clear, it is not the fault of Ukraine. Russia has the ultimate responsibility for this in the ongoing illegal conflict in Ukraine.”

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